Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface

Abstract Arctic winter warming is stronger than in summer, but its driving mechanisms remain debated, particularly the roles of local processes, like sea-ice loss, versus remote factors, like atmospheric heat transport. Here we introduce a novel decomposition framework that characterizes Arctic warming as a function of historical atmospheric circulation, sea ice concentration, and carbon dioxide changes using observational and reanalysis data. We show that sea ice changes explain about 55% of the winter Arctic near-surface temperature trend during 1959–2015, after removing the effects directly connected to atmospheric circulation. Dynamically induced warming accounts for about 20% at surface and up to 80% in mid-troposphere. The remaining ~25% is attributed to the increase in carbon dioxide, though it also indirectly affects sea-ice loss and circulation-related warming. These findings highlight the dominant role of sea ice loss and change in atmospheric dynamics in affecting the historical Arctic winter warming.

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Publication Details

Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Published
2025-09-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02548-y
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
1.30

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article

Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface

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1 citations
Communications Earth & Environment
Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
1.30
article

Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface

Philip J. Rasch, Yiling Huo, Yufei Zou, Rudong Zhang, Weiming Ma, Aodhan John Sweeney, Hailong Wang, Qiang Fu, Muyin Wang
article en
1 citations

Abstract

Abstract Arctic winter warming is stronger than in summer, but its driving mechanisms remain debated, particularly the roles of local processes, like sea-ice loss, versus remote factors, like atmospheric heat transport. Here we introduce a novel decomposition framework that characterizes Arctic warming as a function of historical atmospheric circulation, sea ice concentration, and carbon dioxide changes using observational and reanalysis data. We show that sea ice changes explain about 55% of the winter Arctic near-surface temperature trend during 1959–2015, after removing the effects directly connected to atmospheric circulation. Dynamically induced warming accounts for about 20% at surface and up to 80% in mid-troposphere. The remaining ~25% is attributed to the increase in carbon dioxide, though it also indirectly affects sea-ice loss and circulation-related warming. These findings highlight the dominant role of sea ice loss and change in atmospheric dynamics in affecting the historical Arctic winter warming.

Communications Earth & EnvironmentVol. 6(1)
University of Science and Technology of China (CN), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US), University of Washington (US), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (US), Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites (US)
U.S. Department of Energy, Battelle, National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Science, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Openalex Percentile: Top 18%
Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
1.30
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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