The Risk of Cutting Oil and Gas Revenues is Short-Term Impact of Tariff Wars or Decline in Rent Model

The present research deals with analyzing the role of oil rent in Russian economy and finance system as well as identifying systemic restrictions stipulated by today’s dependence of the country on hydrocarbon export. The basis of the work is formed by historic – economic and macro-analytical approaches, which allows us to trace transformation of economic growth mechanism in Russia from mobilization model of the Soviet Union to the current model of the Russian Federation, where power resources perform the function of capital source. Historically in conditions of insufficient amount of private savings and limited possibilities of finance institutions earnings from power resource export became the base of budget revenue of the budget system in the Russian Federation, the source of investment project implementation and safe backing of long-term social and economic stability. However, oil price drop in spring 2025 caused by foreign economic factors (trade war of the US with record high custom-tariff restrictions and symmetric response of countries-counteragents, a growth in oil supply on the part of OPEK+ countries and general decline in demand on traditional power carriers) exposes vulnerability of the current finance and in general macro-economic structure. Analysis of the federal budget of Russia fulfillment for the 1sr quarter 2025 shows a sharp rise in deficit, drop in oil and gas revenues and reduction in the liquidity part of the National Wealth Foundation. These factors can threaten sustainability of the finance system of Russia. Today’s compensatory steps, i.e. tax adjustment, foreign currency interventions, operative redistribution of expenses should be considered as short-term ones. Without structural transformation and cutting rent dependence Russian economy could run into risk of entering a long-term stagnation. In conclusion the research highlighted the necessity of institutional reforms, strengthening investment climate and passing to saving model based mainly on internal capital but not on export rent.