Enhancing Passenger Volume for the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail: A System Dynamics Approach to Sustainable Regional Development

The Jakarta-Bandung high-speed train (HST) project aims to enhance intercity connectivity between two major metropolitan regions in Indonesia, with anticipated benefits in mobility, economic development, and tourism.This infrastructure initiative is projected to create employment during both construction and operation phases.However, achieving the targeted ridership of 30,000 daily passengers remains a key challenge, particularly when compared to the current usage of conventional trains, which fluctuates between 10,000 and 14,000 passengers per day.This gap raises concerns regarding the long-term sustainability of the HST system.This study applies a system dynamics modelling approach to analyze various factors influencing passenger demand, including fare structures, service frequencies, travel time, and station accessibility.The model integrates feedback loops to capture the dynamic interrelations between policy interventions, transportation infrastructure, and land use.Simulation results reveal that demand is highly sensitive to seasonal variations, with peak travel periods occurring during mid-year and year-end holidays.Among the evaluated scenarios, the highest ridership is achieved when strategies such as integrated multimodal connectivity, optimized pricing, and tourism promotion are implemented.These findings highlight the importance of coordinated policy measures in enhancing system performance.The study concludes that a comprehensive, multi-sectoral approach is essential for achieving operational viability and long-term sustainability in high-speed train systems, particularly in emerging economies seeking to maximize infrastructure investments.