Decoupling material consumption from economic development? Evidence of dematerialization from a multi-decade analysis of 176 countries

Dematerialization of the economy is crucial for reducing the global carbon footprint. However, empirical evidence on how different paths of dematerialization can be achieved remains limited. This paper examines historical trends (1970-2015) in material consumption, accounting for a broad range of materials, including biomass, metal ores, non-metallic minerals, and fossil fuels, across 176 countries grouped by income level. Using regression and statistical analyses, we find that material consumption generally increases with economic growth across all income groups in linear models, reflecting a strong coupling between material use and earlier stages of development. In contrast, second- and third-order polynomial analyses provide robust evidence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between income and material use, especially in upper-middle- and high-income countries. This pattern suggests a turning point in material consumption as economies mature. A disaggregated analysis further shows that forms of dematerialization vary across income groups and material types. Based on the data, we identify four main theoretical mechanisms that help explain the inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and material use: the scale effect, the composition effect, the technique effect, and the policy effect. These differences highlight distinct pathways of material consumption as countries advance economically, indicating that more sustainable trajectories are achievable.