Identification and Correlation Analysis of Multi-Dimensional Risk Factors for Bus Accidents

Public transport accidents pose a significant threat to public safety, so it is necessary to conduct an in-depth exploration of their risk mechanisms. In this study, risk factors were first identified through statistical analysis of the time, road section, type, and cause of accidents. Subsequently, the N-K model was applied to analyze the coupling effect among human, vehicle, road, environment, and management factors, and the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) model was adopted to evaluate the centrality and causal relationship of these factors. The DEMATEL results were corrected using the coupling values obtained from the N-K model, through which the key factors affecting public transport accidents were identified. Finally, conclusions were drawn as follows: Human factors are the dominant inducement of public transport accidents, accounting for 70.86%, among which driver fatigue and weak safety awareness are the main sub-factors. The “human-vehicle-environment” triple coupling factor presents the highest risk, with a coupling value of 0.62, which is 1.77 times the average level of single-factor coupling. Seven key risk factors were identified, and their ranking by centrality from highest to lowest is: as follows driver fatigue, driver physical health, brake failure, unchannelized intersections, rainy weather, following too closely, and insufficient safety training. Among these factors, insufficient safety training exerts the strongest driving effect on other factors.