The impact of quantum computing on the stability of the banking sector in the conditions of extraordinary events

In the modern world, the financial sector faces a wide range of extraordinary events, from market shocks and geopolitical tensions to pandemics and cyberattacks. These diverse challenges significantly impact banks. Recently, particular attention has been drawn to the influence of artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing (QC) technologies on the stability of the financial system. This article analyzes the potential areas of impact of quantum technologies on the financial sphere in general and the resilience of financial institutions in particular.It's determined that quantum technologies can simultaneously pose both threats and new opportunities. Specifically, the article analyzes the potential of quantum technologies to break existing cryptographic algorithms that protect the confidential data of financial institutions' clients. This threat is exacerbated by the possibility of "harvest now, decrypt later" attacks, where malicious actors intercept data today with the intention of decrypting it in the future. This presents challenges and threats for online/mobile banking, payment operations, and corporate communications. Among the positive impacts of quantum technologies on banking, the article highlights improved financial risk assessment, particularly enhanced accuracy in stress testing, portfolio management, and derivatives pricing, by solving problems inaccessible to classical computing. The potential of quantum machine learning for fraud detection is also noted. Attention is given to the financial sector's response to these challenges. Initiatives for developing quantum-resistant (post-quantum) cryptography are considered as the primary method for mitigating the risks associated with the proliferation of quantum computing, along with new cryptographic protocols and quantum key distribution as a new opportunity to enhance security. The article emphasizes the responsibility of central banks in forming quantum-readiness strategies, including investments in post-quantum cryptography, expertise development, and the adaptation of regulatory frameworks. The conclusion drawn is that although the immediate benefits of quantum technologies may be modest, their long-term transformative potential for the financial sector is immense.