Producers’ perspectives on agricultural intensification in the Brazilian Amazon: bridging behavioral theory, empirical evidence, and land use models

Rising global land pressure has placed land use intensification, particularly in the agricultural sector, on national agendas. This study uses semi-structured interviews guided by behavioral theories to analyze motivating and constraining factors of agricultural intensification in the Brazilian Amazon. We also conduct a standardized expert survey to explore how these factors are considered in land use models and give insights into plausible regional land use futures. Our findings provide empirical evidence that intensification is largely motivated by expected economic benefits but constrained by diverse actor-level, landscape, and institutional barriers. Among these, risk aversion, knowledge gaps, and infrastructural constraints remain underrepresented in models. For the future, producers anticipate further cropland expansion but doubt the integration of forestry in local production systems. By identifying plausible intensification futures and revealing gaps in land use models, this study highlights limits of agricultural intensification and provides important insights for future model development.