Optimal Guidance Mechanism for EV Charging Behavior and Its Impact Assessment on Distribution Network Hosting Capacity

With the rapid growth in the penetration of Electric Vehicles (EVs), their large-scale uncoordinated charging behavior presents significant challenges to the hosting capacity of traditional distribution networks (DNs). The novelty of this paper lies in its methodology, which integrates a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for realistic load profiling with a bi-level optimization framework for Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing, whose effectiveness is then rigorously evaluated through an Optimal Power Flow (OPF)-based assessment of the grid’s hosting capacity. First, to compensate for the limitations of historical data, the MCMC method is employed to simulate the uncoordinated charging process of a large-scale EV fleet. Second, the bi-level optimization model is constructed to formulate a globally optimal TOU tariff that maximizes charging cost savings for EV users. At the same time, its lower-level simulates the optimal economic response of the EV user population. Finally, the change in the minimum daily hosting capacity is calculated based on the OPF. Case study simulations for IEEE 33-bus and IEEE 69-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed model effectively shifts charging loads to off-peak hours, achieving stable user cost savings of 20.95%. More importantly, the findings reveal substantial security benefits from this economic strategy, validated across diverse network topologies. In the 33-bus system, the minimum daily capacity enhancement ranged from 174.63% for the most vulnerable node to 2.44% for the strongest node. In the 69-bus system, vulnerable nodes still achieved a significant 78.62% improvement. This finding highlights the limitations of purely economic assessments and underscores the necessity of the proposed integrated framework for achieving precise, location-dependent security planning.