The Impact of Trade Barriers Targeting Russia on Kenya’s Food Security and Economic Performance

This study investigates the impact of trade barriers targeting Russia on Kenya’s food security and economic performance within the context of global trade dynamics from 2022 to 2024. Imposition of sanctions and other trade limitations on Russia because of the Russia-Ukraine war has various implications on the world markets with one of the key sectors of the Kenya economy, agriculture and energy, being among them. The main focus of this study was to determine the extent to which such trade barriers impacted on the ability of Kenya to access some essential agricultural dishes such as wheat and fertilizers and also on food prices, inflation and the stability of the entire economy. Mixed-methods design was used that unites qualitative and quantitative systems of collecting data. A total of 150 key stakeholders in the agricultural and energy sector of Kenya consisting of policymakers, industry experts and business leaders were approached through structured surveys. These surveys measured the direct and indirect effects of the restrictions on the trade on the economy of Kenya. Furthermore, 15 semi-structured interviews will be conducted with the representatives of the international trade, economics, and government policy experts, which will give a better understanding of why Kenya struggled to react to these disruptions. The secondary sources of data included the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA, 2022), International Trade Administration (2023), and the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS, 2022) and provided a historical background and cross-check of the primary research data. This paper discusses how trade restrictions affecting Russia would affect the food security of Kenya and the state of her economy over the 2022 to 2024 period. The result indicates serious grass-intellectual tensions of fertilizer and wheat imports which translates into rise in price of food more so wheat flour and inflation. The importation of fertilizers in Russia reduced by 48%, and the price of fertilizers increased by 30%. The use of the Russian wheat in Kenya resulted in huge food crises and an increase in wheat flour by 28% in the year 2022. Imports of the country into Russia dropped significantly and then in 2023, the imports rose as Kenya diversified its imports. Rising costs of fuel added to the economic hardships because they led to inflation and budget shortfalls. This has shed light on how Kenya was susceptible to international trade shocks and how the country had to strategically diversify in its agriculture policies, trade, and energy policies. One of the recommendations is that Kenya should diversify its trade relationships especially with emerging economies such as Brazil and India to eliminate over dependence on individual suppliers. Greater funding in local agricultural production in terms of better irrigation, lending opportunities, and climate-smart agriculture is important to long-time food security.