Unveiling spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of ecosystem services to optimize the ecological zoning management in the Luo river basin

The comprehensive ecosystem service index (CESI) and ecosystem service bundles (ES bundles) were integrated, combined with the optimal parameter geographic detector and multi-scale geographically weighted regression to reveal the spatiotemporal differentiation and driving mechanism of ecosystem services (ESs) in Luo River Basin. The results show that the spatial distribution of ESs is low in the northeast and high in the southwest, similar to the distribution of forests. The average annual growth rates of water yield, carbon storage, and soil retention were 4.71%, 0.05%, and 8.97% respectively, and the spatial increase area accounted for more than 90%. Habitat quality decreased by an average of 0.31% per year, with 39.76% of the region declining. The upstream ecological benefits of CESI are better than those of the downstream, and ES bundles identify two high supply modes (B2, B3). Precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index, and slope are the dominant driving factors of ESs and CESI. Based on the heterogeneity of driving responses, a watershed zoning governance framework is proposed. Upstream vegetation structure needs to be optimized; the disorderly expansion of downstream cities should be curbed to provide a scientific basis for the next stage of the Grain for Green program and spatially differentiated governance.