Exploring Multi-Scenario Land Use Changes and Carbon Storage Using CMCPI, Coupled Multi-Feature Classification, PLUS, and InVEST — Lianyungang as a Case Research

Coastal cities are among the fastest urbanizing and industrializing regions, but they also face critical issues, including environmental degradation, uncontrolled urban expansion, and an intense increase in carbon discharges. Hence, it was necessary to conduct a rigorous assessment of changes in landscape coverage and carbon storage. This research focused on Lianyungang and proposed an integrated method, CMCPI, which coupled multi-feature for land classification, PLUS, and InVEST. The purpose was to detect alterations in land utilization patterns and evaluate carbon discharges. Utilizing remote sensing data from 2010 to 2020, a detailed land use classification was performed for the research area, and its spatiotemporal change characteristics were analyzed. Subsequently, simulations predicted land use patterns for 2030 across four distinct scenarios: Nature-Focused Development (ND), Urban Rapid Development (UD), Cropland Protection (CP), and Ecological Sustainable Protection (EP). Additionally, the variations in regional carbon storage across different scenarios were assessed. The consequences indicated that the CMCPI achieved high accuracy and reliability in land classification. From 2010 to 2020, impervious surface areas in Lianyungang significantly increased to 1276.62 km<sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup>, while cropland, forestland, and grassland areas decreased. Carbon storage initially declined and then increased. Predictions for future scenarios indicated that only the EP scenario would promote an increase in carbon storage, reaching 9200.25 mmt, whereas the other three scenarios would result in varying degrees of carbon storage reduction. This research not only provides new insights into understanding the ecosystem benefits service values and carbon storage capacities of coastal areas but also offers scientific support for policy-making towards achieving “carbon neutrality” and provides references for sustainable development planning for Lianyungang.