From revolution to inflation: the economic consequences of the Arab spring on Yemen’s food prices

Abstract The Arab Spring began with the hope of restoring democracy but ended in a turmoil. The economic costs of Arab uprisings need to be estimated. This study aims to estimate the economic cost of the Arab uprisings in terms of food inflation. Adopting a case study approach, we focus on Yemen, a country that experienced the Arab uprising starting in January 2011. We define the Arab Spring as the series of events that Yemen experienced after the movements started in January 2011. We employ difference-in-differences (DiD) as an identification strategy to address selection bias. Furthermore, we apply Synthetic DiD and a two-way fixed effects model as robustness checks. We consistently find that the Arab Spring significantly increased food prices in Yemen. This study provides policy implications for relevant stakeholders regarding the impact of political conflicts on food security dynamics.