Potential distribution changes of Xanthium italicum under environmental change scenarios

<i>Xanthium italicum</i> is a highly invasive alien species that poses significant ecological and agricultural risks in China. Accurate prediction of its future distribution under climate change is crucial for early warning and prevention. In this study, we integrate 19 bioclimatic variables with four remote sensing-derived environmental factors—Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Digital Elevation Model (DEM), slope, and aspect—into a MaxEnt modeling framework to simulate the current and future distribution of <i>Xanthium italicum</i>. Species occurrence data were used to project the potential suitable areas under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s. The results indicate that: (1) The enhanced MaxEnt model incorporating remote sensing variables such as NDVI and DEM outperformed the climate-only model, with these factors contributing significantly to prediction accuracy alongside bioclimatic variables; (2) Under current conditions, <i>Xanthium italicum</i> is mainly distributed in northern Xinjiang, the border area between Shanxi and Shaanxi, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the Liaoning Peninsula, with a total suitable area of 43.96&times;10⁴ km²; (3) Under different future climate scenarios, the overall suitable area for <i>Xanthium italicum</i> in China is projected to increase and gradually expand outward. This study demonstrates the value of integrating remote sensing data into species distribution models and provides technical support for invasive species monitoring under climate change.