Effectiveness analysis of ecological networks in ecological risk governance based on the spatiotemporal dynamics

The land cover changes by urbanization have significantly amplified ecological risk (ER). While ecological network (EN) is increasingly adopted as a spatial planning tool for ecosystem restoration, critical spatial and temporal mismatches between EN configurations and evolving ER patterns remain underexplored, leading to suboptimal conservation strategies. Taking the China's Pearl River Delta (PRD) as an example from 2000 to 2020, this study constructed a comprehensive analysis method combining EN dynamics and ER evolution based on the circuit theory, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and hierarchical mapping. The results showed that: (1) A 116.38% expansion in high-ER zones (2000-2020) paralleled the 4.48% decrease of ecological sources and increased flow resistance in ecological corridors, destabilizing the EN's structural integrity. (2) Strong negative correlations (Moran's I = -0.6, p < 0.01) emerged between EN hotspots (100-150 km urban periphery) and ER clusters (50 km urban core), indicating concentric ER-EN segregation. (3) Single-scale EN planning only addressed localized ER hotspots, disproportionately affecting vulnerable peri-urban zones - a critical environmental justice gap. These results provided insights into the adaptive management of EN within the context of PRD, and potentially offered references for the similar rapidly urbanized megaregions.