Coastal squeeze reduces nitrogen removal services provided by wetlands: insights from an interdisciplinary framework

Abstract Natural landscapes provide valuable ecosystem services that increase community resilience to environmental change. We present a novel interdisciplinary framework to quantify and spatially evaluate the value and fate of coastal wetlands in the context of sea level rise (SLR) and future land use (FLU) plans. We apply our framework in New Bern, NC, USA, where we project changes in nitrogen removal ecosystem services provided by wetlands and undeveloped open spaces during heavy rainfall events under current sea levels and with 0.15–1.5 m (0.5–5 ft) of SLR. These landscapes currently provide $90 000 USD worth of nitrogen removal ecosystem services annually. Areas currently designated for conservation are especially valuable, contributing 53% of annual services despite making up only 13% of New Bern’s total land area (107 km 2 ). We show that these Conservation designations are expected to lose over 60% of their wetlands with 0.90 m (3 ft) of SLR, reducing New Bern’s expected annual benefit by 56%. Wetland migration to higher elevations is inhibited largely by existing urban development, though we locate potential wetland migration corridors that extend into Developed and Urban Transition FLU designations. Application of our framework can help to maintain ecosystem services and reduce the pressures of coastal squeeze across changing coastal landscapes.