Do the Ends Represent the Means? Assessing Adaptive Capacity Determinants against Proactive and Reactive Adaptive Actions in Vietnam’s Coffee Growing Region

Abstract With the introduction of the Global Goal on Adaptation in the Paris Agreement and the mandate to track progress under it, there is an increased demand to assess adaptive capacity to climate and weather risk. In this analysis, we explore how determinants of adaptive capacity relate to proactive and reactive adaptive behaviors. Using a household panel survey in a coffee growing smallholder system in Vietnam, we empirically evaluate three types of adaptive actions: (i) response to experienced shock events (reactive), (ii) preparation for perceived future shock events (proactive), and (iii) adjustment to climate change and slow-onset risk (proactive). We find that proactive actions toward shock events (ii) and toward climate change (iii) reflect adaptive capacity theory well—although not identically, while reactive actions toward shocks (i) need more clarification. Our results confirm that key determinants of adaptive capacity do not always lead to increased action. The relationships between specific determinants and realized actions depend on the type of risk being addressed, and if actions were taken proactively or reactively. The approach allows us to address challenges of conceptual ambiguity—particularly the cyclical nature of determinants and adaptive actions. Our results have implications for designing and monitoring adaptation and development interventions, necessitating a better understanding of the underlying determinants that differentially influence adaptive actions. Significance Statement Farmers and those working in agriculture are some of the first people to experience climate change, as their livelihood is dependent on the weather. As such, they are already acting in innovative ways to deal with new and unexpected changes. Sometimes farmers are dealing with heavy rain events, floods, or droughts, which we call weather shock events. Other times they are dealing with slow changes, such as increasing temperature from year to year or the gradual delay of the start of the growing season. Farmers can address these events and changes by preparing for them in advance or trying to react to the impacts afterward. While programs and policies often aim to support the ability of farmers to prepare for and respond to the shocks and changes that they experience, it is not always clear what resources can be provided to best support them. In this article, we look at how coffee growers in Vietnam act in the face of shocks and changes, and how these actions relate to the different resources that the farmers have access to. We find that our understanding of what supports farmers to act is based primarily on resources that allow them to prepare in advance and not necessarily to react, meaning that more research is needed on what resources can help farmers respond to change in diverse ways.