Predictive Modelling of the Energy and Climate Cost of Ghana's Economic Growth

ABSTRACT Strong socio‐economic growth demands substantial primary energy consumption, which could increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Ghana is targeting a gross domestic product (GDP) of $126–159 billion by 2030, which will require an annual growth rate of 7%–8%. This will require substantial primary energy consumption to drive industrialisation, urbanisation and other developmental initiatives. With nearly 70% of its power generation and at least 95% of its transportation reliant on fossil fuels, the impact of this rising energy consumption on GHG emissions must be carefully examined, especially as the country also aims to achieve net‐zero emissions by 2070. This study analysed Ghana's economic growth, primary energy consumption and corresponding GHG emissions from 1980 to 2019. Linear regression models were then developed to estimate the energy required to achieve specific GDP growth targets and the resulting CO 2 emissions. The study revealed a correlation between Ghana's GDP growth and primary energy consumption and CO 2 emissions over the period 1980 to 2019. However, the increasing share of clean energy in the country's energy mix since 2014 offers optimism that Ghana can meet its growing energy demands for socio‐economic development without a corresponding rise in emissions. Achieving this will require innovative and sustainable solutions to balance the country's substantial energy needs with its net‐zero commitments. By quantifying the climate costs of socio‐economic development targets, the article demonstrates that development comes with both financial and environmental costs.