Divergent Globalization Paths in Europe: A Dynamic Clustering Approach and Implications for Sustainable Development

The sustainability of regional development in Europe is deeply influenced by heterogeneous globalization processes, yet the divergent long-term trajectories of these processes remain poorly quantified, hindering the design of targeted policies. This study aims to identify and characterize clusters of European countries with similar patterns of overall globalization development in order to assess implications for sustainable and cohesive growth. A novel clustering algorithm is developed that integrates Dynamic Time Warping with k-means to account for temporal misalignments and capture similarities in development dynamics rather than just static levels. Analysis based on the KOF Globalization Index for 40 countries reveals four distinct clusters: highly globalized and stable Western European economies, converging Central and Eastern European countries, microstates with niche integration models, and a peripheral group of Southeastern European nations facing significant challenges. The results demonstrate a persistent core–periphery divergence in globalization paths across Europe. This divergence presents a major obstacle to achieving territorial cohesion and equitable sustainable development outcomes. Methodologically, this study provides a robust framework for analyzing longitudinal socioeconomic processes. The main conclusion is that a one-size-fits-all EU cohesion policy is insufficient; instead, cluster-specific strategies are necessary in order to mitigate regional inequalities, enhance resilience, and ensure that the benefits of globalization contribute to the goals of sustainable development. The findings offer a quantitative basis for such targeted policy interventions.