SOFA Score Trends in Predicting Mortality in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients

The COVID-19 pandemic increased demand for intensive care unit (ICU) beds, requiring reliable disease severity scoring tools to optimise patient management and resource allocation. This retrospective study investigated the accuracy of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score in predicting mortality among critically ill COVID-19 patients. Data from 357 patients aged 18 years and above admitted to the ICU with COVID-19 category 5a and above, requiring ventilatory support throughout 2021, were analysed. The SOFA scores were calculated on days 1, 3 and 5 of ICU admission. The highest score and trends were noted; whether scores increased, were maintained or decreased was also determined. Patient outcomes were classified as survivors and non-survivors. There were significant differences in SOFA score trends between survivors and non-survivors. The high sensitivity (83.95%) and positive predictive value (PPV) (86.08%) in those with increased SOFA score trends showed that a SOFA score of ≥9 strongly predicted mortality, albeit with moderate specificity (65.63%). High sensitivity (81.85%) with low PPV (49.45%) was seen in those with decreased SOFA score trends. A high negative predictive value (87.50%) was observed for survivors. The SOFA score trend is effective in prognosticating survival in critically ill patients with COVID-19 infection, making it useful for critical care resource management.