The Impact of Crises on Azerbaijan–European Union Economic Relations: A Trade Intensity Index Approach

The primary aim of this research is to evaluate the bilateral trade and economic relations between Azerbaijan and the European Union (EU) from 2004 to 2023, utilizing the trade intensity index. The study also examines the effects of positive agreements designed to bolster these relations, along with the influence of negative factors such as economic downturns, political obstacles, and the pandemic on Azerbaijan's path toward integration with the EU. Furthermore, it seeks to assess whether the trade intensity index between Azerbaijan and the EU stands above or below the global average. After reaching a high point in 2007, trade relations between Azerbaijan and the EU were adversely impacted by external events like the 2008 global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Second Karabakh War. Nonetheless, bilateral agreements, including the Eastern Partnership Program, have reinforced trade relations between the two, contributing to a positive trend in trade intensity.