Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Performance in Air Cargo Transportation: A Panel Data Analysis of 17 European Countries

Air cargo transportation is a major industry that accounts for a significant share of global trade and generates both economic and social benefits. The success of this industry, which involves multiple actors with diverse roles, is closely linked to macroeconomic indicators. The aim of this study is to examine the effects of macroeconomic indicators on air cargo performance by analyzing their short- and long-term impacts. Data from 17 European countries with the highest air cargo traffic during 2002–2022 were analyzed using the Panel ARDL method. Air cargo volume in ton-km was used as the dependent variable, while GDP, population, foreign trade volume, foreign direct investment, and the number of departures were considered as independent variables. Results show that in the short term, a one percent increase in economic growth raises air cargo volume by 0.619 percent, and population growth by 1.206 percent. Foreign trade volume has a negative short-term effect but a positive long-term effect. Foreign direct investment has no significant impact, whereas the number of departures positively affects air cargo traffic across all periods. Given that existing studies largely focus on passenger transport demand, the multidimensional and comparative approach of this study offers a valuable contribution to the literature.