Models of marriage and divorce in the youth cohorts of modern Russia

This article examines patterns of marriage and divorce among youth cohorts with the aim of identifying similarities and differences in the formation of marital potential across generations. Significant transformations in the family and marital sphere over the past five years have brought renewed scholarly attention to this issue. To analyze the specific features of marital behavior among youth in the prior and posterior generations, the authors rely on statistical data from the All-Russian population censuses of 2002 and 2020. The study identifies key characteristics of contemporary youth’s marriage and divorce patterns, as well as their distinctions from those of the “parental” generation. A significant problem of statistical ambiguity in marital status has been revealed — one that shows a growing trend and requires further investigation: a substantial group of contemporary youth now reports an undefined marital status. The authors note a marked decline in the marital potential of current youth cohorts, driven both by demographic shrinkage of the age group itself and by reduced marital activity compared to the generation of young people in the early 2000s. Based on comparative analysis, the paper provides a detailed examination of the structural characteristics of marriage and divorce across specific youth age cohorts. Despite significant differences in dynamics and age-related patterns, a high degree of similarity between the two generational models is observed. Particular attention is paid to gender differences in marital behavior models among Russia’s youth across generations. The findings may contribute to a better understanding of ongoing transformations in the matrimonial sphere among young people and inform the development of evidence-based youth, demographic, and social policies.