Analysis of the Effects of Temperature Changes on Wheat Production in Sub-Saharan Africa

The effects of climate change, particularly rising global temperatures on global food production, have become a major concern. The main objective of this paper is to assess the effects of temperature changes on wheat production in sub-Saharan Africa between 1980 and 2022 using a Cointégration model based on the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) approach in a panel of 37 sub-Saharan African countries. The data used for this purpose come from the FAO database (2023) and the World Bank (WDI, 2023). The results obtained indicate that in the short and long term, temperature changes have a negative effect on wheat production in sub-Saharan Africa. This is reflected in the fact that an increase of 1°C in temperature leads to a decrease in wheat production in the region, negatively impacting soil conditions. In view of these results, sub-Saharan African countries must collectively and concertedly become aware of the negative effects of temperature changes on wheat production by improving their soil quality; multiply measures to address the multiple problems related to wheat production, especially in rural areas, by supporting agricultural sector stakeholders in developing climate change-resilient strategies.