An Econometric Estimation of the Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Self-Sufficiency Rates in Egypt

The agricultural sector faces many challenges that threaten its ability to meet the growing demand for food, most notably climate change, increased global warming, and decreased crop productivity. The study aimed to examine the impact of climate change on wheat production capacity and self-sufficiency rates, by estimating the unrestricted error correction model (ARDL-UECM), using published and unpublished secondary data. The most important results were: (1) A decrease in the growth rate of wheat productivity from about 1.89% annually during the period 1990-2006 AD, to about 0.36% during the period 2007-2023 AD, with an average annual growth rate of about 0.79% during the period 1990-2023 AD. The average maximum and minimum temperatures also increased during March at rates of about 0.24%, 0.40% compared to about 0.05%, 0.08% during April, respectively, with a standard deviation of about 1.86, 1.41 degrees during March compared to about 1.27. 1.01 degrees during April, while rainfall decreased at an annual rate of approximately 1.83% and 0.64%, respectively. (2) The rise in maximum temperatures during March had a greater impact than in April, as the rise in temperature during March led to a decline in the production-to-consumption period from approximately 154.23 days to approximately 146.09 days, while the rise in minimum temperatures during April had a greater impact, as it led to a decline in the production-to-consumption period to approximately 152 days. (3) The rise in humidity levels during March had a greater impact, as the self-sufficiency rate decreased from 42.25% to approximately 41.65%.