Feasibility Assessment of Establishing Local Power Generation Based on Consolidated Calculations of Gas Turbine Installations

Purpose: To substantiate the techno-economic feasibility of constructing a local gas-turbine power plant (GTPP) to cover the 36 % capacity shortfall in Tartus (Syria) and to enhance supply reliability. Methods: A high- level assessment was performed: (i) determination of the required installed capacity with a 15 % reserve; (ii) calculation of specific natural-gas consumption at 34 % thermal efficiency; (iii) projection of annual output at a 0.7 capacity factor; (iv) estimation of CAPEX and OPEX using global equipment and fuel prices; and (v) computation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and simple payback period. Results: A 60 MW GTPP eliminates the current deficit and provides a 10 % reserve for demand growth. With gas priced at 0.25 USD m⁻³, the LCOE is 0.075 USD kWh⁻¹ (≈ 7–8 RUB kWh⁻¹), three times lower than diesel generation. An investment of approximately 52 million USD is recovered in 3–4 years at a tariff of 0.12 USD kWh⁻¹; increasing the tariff to 0.15 USD kWh⁻¹ shortens payback to 2 years. Replacing diesel units reduces annual CO₂ emissions by about 100 kt. Practical significance: The proposed algorithm enables a reliable one-day express appraisal of distributed gas-turbine projects in regions with a damaged power system. Equipment modularity (8–10 months for delivery and commissioning) and competitive LCOE position the GTPP as the optimal tool for rapid restoration of electricity supply, while solar plants remain a supplementary source for daytime peak demand.