From static to predictive indicators: Construction of China’s spatiotemporal risk zoning index for land use changes ecological risks

• Developed a comprehensive risks zoning index for ecological risks of land use changes. • China’s land-use ecological risk composite index averages 4.97 % • China’s ecological risk dominated by low-risk zones (92.99 %), medium/high-risk areas follow. • Established 3-tier ecological risk zoning: national-geographic-administrative (5/15/45 zones) The synergistic interactions between global climate change and anthropogenic activities have amplified the compound stress effects of land-use disturbances on ecosystems, precipitating a substantial escalation in ecological risks (ER). Nevertheless, contemporary assessment frameworks exhibit significant shortcomings in addressing these multidimensional stress dynamics. Prevailing ecological zoning methodologies predominantly employ static evaluation paradigms, which fail to adequately elucidate the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and prospective trajectories of land-use transformations and associated ecosystem services (ESs). These methodological constraints not only impede practical implementation in ER governance but have also perpetuated a critical knowledge gap in spatial partitioning research concerning ER stemming from land-use modifications. To address these challenges, this study pioneers the development of an integrated ecological risk comprehensive index of land use changes (ERCILUC), coupled with the creation of a hierarchical spatial zoning architecture incorporating national-scale, physiographic regionalization, and administrative jurisdictional dimensions. This methodological advancement facilitates the inaugural systematic spatial delineation of ER gradations associated with land use changes (LUC) across China’s territorial expanse. The results indicate that: (1) The ERCILUC in China (mean value 4.97 %) demonstrates distinct spatial differentiation characteristics with higher values concentrated in northeastern and southwestern regions, contrasting with lower values in western areas; (2) ER levels exhibit a predominance of low-risk zones (92.99 %), followed by moderate-risk (4.12 %) and high-risk areas (2.89 %); (3) A three-tiered ER zoning system has been established across national-geographic partition-administrative boundary levels, comprising 5 primary zones, 15 secondary zones, and 45 tertiary zones. The ER zoning framework developed in this study transcends the spatiotemporal scale limitations inherent in conventional research approaches. Through innovative dynamic prediction capabilities, it facilitates the transition from static assessment to dynamic monitoring in ER management, providing scientific foundations and theoretical guidance for ecological functional zoning, coordinated territorial spatial protection, and global risk prevention strategies.