Current and Future Olive (Olea europaea L.) Distribution Mapping in Türkiye Based on Climate Scenarios

This study aims to evaluate the current and future potential distribution areas of Olea europaea L. (olive), one of the characteristic species of the Mediterranean climate, in the context of climate change in Türkiye. Olive is a strategic species that attracts attention with its high economic value and ecological contributions as a non-wood forest product. However, global climate change leads to significant changes in the phenology, yielding the potential and suitability of this species due to stressful factors such as increasing temperatures, drought and extreme weather events. In this context, the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) species distribution model was used based on high-resolution CHELSA climate data to analyze the environmental variables affecting the distribution of the species and to model the potential distribution areas under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) for the year 2100. The success of the model was confirmed with high AUC values (training: 0.917; testing: 0.911), and the most effective variables were elevation, annual mean temperature (BIO1), precipitation seasonality (BIO15) and terrain roughness. The findings indicate that olives may lose their potential distribution areas in traditional coastal zones in the future, while gaining new suitable areas at higher elevations and in more northerly regions. Especially in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, while the suitability areas on the Mediterranean and Aegean coasts narrowed because of increasing temperatures, shifts towards the Black Sea coasts and inland regions were detected. The results obtained are consistent with similar studies in literature and point out the necessity of re-planning future production strategies in terms of olive cultivation with a climate adaptation perspective. In this context, it is suggested to develop multidimensional approaches that integrate not only climatic but also soil, water, biotic interactions and socioeconomic factors.