Stakeholder Perspectives on Fertilizer Policy in Germany: Findings from a Modified Delphi Study

The European Farm to Fork strategy mandates transformative measures to reduce agriculture's environmental impacts, yet its translation into actionable policies remains ambiguous. In Germany, current fertilizer policies rely on rigid, action-oriented guidelines that stakeholders increasingly criticize for failing to address complex environmental challenges. This study captures policy demands for improved nutrient management by engaging primary stakeholders-from agriculture, environmental protection, and academia-through a modified policy Delphi process. Iterative online working groups and a plenary scenario workshop, structured around a systematic framework on environmental policy instrument selection, elicited open-ended, demand-driven responses. Findings reveal a strong consensus for shifting from prescriptive fertilization practices to target-oriented, scientifically grounded approaches. Stakeholders advocate adopting farm-gate nutrient balancing to reduce nitrogen losses and manage phosphorus surpluses while emphasizing the need for robust monitoring systems enhanced by digital technologies. This participatory approach integrates diverse expert perspectives into policy recommendation, enhancing the legitimacy and adaptability of future fertilizer policies while reducing political dissent. Although these stakeholder-driven recommendations offer promising directions for reconciling agricultural productivity with environmental sustainability, further empirical research-including pilot projects and simulation studies-is needed to validate feasibility and refine the methodological framework. The insights from this study contribute to the bottom-up development of fertilizer policy instruments that support the broader objectives of the Farm to Fork strategy.