Recent Patterns of Temperature and Rainfall Variation in a Tropical Rainforest Location

Temperature and rainfall are critical variables influencing crop production in tropical regions such as Ile-Ife. Understanding recent trends in these variables is essential for helping farmers adapt to the impacts of climate change. This study analyzed 12 years (2011–2022) of daily air temperature and rainfall data from the automatic weather stations (AWS) at Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, to identify trends and potential evidence of climate change. Summary and inferential statistical methods, including bar and line charts, mean, standard error of the mean, range, and regression analysis, were used for data analysis. Results showed rainfall pattern that has become more erratic with higher interannual variability, delayed onset, increased concentration in fewer months, and frequent extreme events, all of which indicate the intensifying impacts of climate change on local agriculture. The mean annual rainfall and range were 1505 mm and 675 mm to 2829 mm, respectively, with a declining trend (b = -45.62 mm) and a significant R² value of 0.48. Mean air temperature ranged from 25.2°C to 28.2°C with a declining trend over the past decade, and reduction in maximum annual temperature in contrast with earlier reports and global warming projections. Findings suggest that climate change at this location is characterized more by concentrated high rainfall events between June and August rather than a reduction in total annual rainfall or a significant temperature increase.