Value in Transition: Spatial, Temporal, and Pandemic-Driven Dynamics in Türkiye’s Agricultural Trade

This study analyzes Türkiye’s fresh fruit and vegetable exports over the period 2010–2020, focusing on product-level, spatial, and temporal dynamics. Using disaggregated data from the Turkish Exporters Assembly, the research combines time series analysis, spatial visualization techniques, and a series of fixed effects panel data models estimated separately for each product. By incorporating a year-specific dummy variable for 2020, the models capture the average price dynamics over time and allow for the identification of the COVID-19 pandemic’s distinct impact on each product’s Free on Board (FOB) export value. The findings indicate that high-value-added products have become more diversified, with the Aegean and Mediterranean regions standing out as key contributors to total export value due to their infrastructural capacity and crop diversity. The results further reveal that the pandemic triggered statistically significant price increases for several products including pear, strawberry, apple, date, fig, peach, and grape suggesting a shift in international demand towards health-promoting and durable fresh produce. Overall, the study underscores the need for export strategies that emphasize not only volume expansion but also unit value growth, regional competitiveness, and product-level resilience to global shocks.