Exploring the divergence of rare earth trade networks with a global simulation model

Rare earths are critical to high-tech and low-carbon applications. To protect national interests, countries increasingly adopt geopolitical trade actions among rare earth supply chains. Here, this study combines a global simulation model with network analysis to reveal how trade barriers, coalitions, and liberalization could reshape international rare earth trade networks. Results show an increasingly reduced concentration of global trade patterns, which have divided into more regional groups. In particular, Japan, Malaysia, and several Asian countries have formed a community increasingly mediating China-U.S. trade. Scenario analysis highlights the different role of actions from major exporters in shaping global networks, and trade barriers would intensify regionalization tendency, while non-discriminatory coalitions and trade liberalization can encourage globalization. Our analysis underscores the necessity of broader cooperation for a resilient rare earth supply chain.