Designing inclusive energy transitions: Insights from Latin America’s electricity sector

Policymakers in the Global South lack tailored guidance for aligning decarbonization with social equity. Imported frameworks from high-income countries often overlook local governance and territorial realities. To address this gap, this study employs a three-stage methodology analyzing Latin America's electricity sector: (i) a comparative policy analysis of six frontrunner countries that achieved near-universal electricity access with high shares of renewables, (ii) a historical diagnosis of structural lock-ins constraining Colombia’s electricity transition, and (iii) a scenario-based input–output model assessing Colombia's decarbonization pathways to 2037. Findings reveal that successful countries combined stable long-horizon policies, adaptive governance that balances state and market roles, and equity-focused access measures. By contrast, Colombia’s transition is hindered by structural technological, institutional, financial, and territorial lock-ins that reproduce inequality and limit diversification. Modeling suggests ambitious decarbonization could cut Colombia's CO₂-equivalent emissions by up to 11% in 2037, with minimal macroeconomic impact. However, achieving this outcome requires complementary redistribution measures to protect vulnerable groups. This study offers a transferable framework for designing inclusive electricity transitions in the Global South.