Prospect Precocity and University Choice: Evidence from One-and-Done Talent in College Basketball

This study examines the impact of precocity on the university choices made by college basketball prospects. More specifically, it investigates the university and coach-related factors that lead to successful recruiting of one-and-done players in order to shed light on the decision-making process that they utilize in their preparation for a professional basketball career. Probit models utilizing panel data covering the life of the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement establishing the one-and-done rule suggest that employment of successful coaches, particularly those with coaching experience in the NBA, increases the probability a university will attract one-and-done talent. Additionally, universities with a rich heritage in men’s basketball, and those that have produced collegiate stars and NBA prospects, are most successful in attracting these precocious prospects.