Projection of climate change and extreme climate events during cropping seasons in Northwest Bangladesh

Abstract Understanding cropping season-specific changes in future climate variables and extremes is crucial for formulating effective adaptation strategies. This research investigated the future changes in climate variables and extreme events in the northwest Bangladesh using multiple climate models downscaled from Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase-6 under four shared socioeconomic pathways: SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 for three locations viz. Rangpur, Bogura, and Rajshahi. We analyzed relative changes in maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall, heat stress days, accumulated growing degree days (AGDD), total rainy days, and heavy rainfall days for the near future (NF, 2031–2065) and far future (FF, 2066–2100) relative to base period (1988–2022) during the growing period of rainfed rice, irrigated rice, wheat, maize, and potato. Results indicate that seasonal maximum (T max ) and minimum (T min ) temperatures are expected to rise consistently across all emission scenarios except SSP126, which shows a downward trend after 2070. The greatest T max rise is projected during Potato, while the least in rainfed rice. However, the T min rise is anticipated to outweigh T max , with the highest T min rise for wheat and potato under SSP585. Rainfall is expected to increase notably during rainfed rice but decline during potato season. All crops are projected to face more heat stress days and AGDD compared to base period. Furthermore, heavy rainfall days is projected to increase during rainfed rice period, while number of rainy days are expected to decline, suggesting higher rainfall intensity in the future. Further research is needed to assess crop yield impacts and develop adaptation strategies to address climate risk in the region.