Analysis of regional employment in the North Caucasus Federal District

The shortage of labor resources in many scientific research, expert-analytical and official government studies as one of the main strategic threats to economic security at the current stage of the country’s development. The article is devoted to the study of the problem of labor shortage in the North Caucasus Federal District (NCFD) in the context of an active transition to digitalization of the economy. The authors analyze the situation in the labor market of the region, characterized by a high level of hidden unemployment, low quality of labor resources and an acute shortage of qualified personnel. The importance of studying the dynamics of labor potential and finding out the reasons for the current situation is emphasized, since the shortage of personnel is becoming a serious obstacle to the sustainable socio-economic development of the region. The article identifies specific features of the labor market in the NCFD, including geographical heterogeneity of digitalization levels, dependence of the district’s subjects on external financial flows and the persistent gap between professional requirements and the qualification potential of local residents. Particular attention is paid to the consideration of methods for diagnosing personnel shortages and identifying ways to improve the effectiveness of labor market regulation measures. The study draws on extensive empirical data, including official Rosstat data, expert assessments, and analytical reports from leading labor market researchers. It identifies significant factors that determine the current picture of labor shortages in the region, including negative demographic trends, structural imbalances in professional qualifications, and limited investment opportunities. Practical recommendations are offered to improve human resource management strategies in the context of digitalization, aimed at eliminating these shortcomings and minimizing the risks associated with the development of a shortage of highly qualified specialists. The main findings emphasize the importance of an integrated approach to solving the problem, combining government support, regional employment policy, and the active involvement of educational institutions in training future generations of professionals. This article is the first part of the study; in the second part, which will be published in subsequent issues of the journal, the authors propose effective tools for overcoming labor shortages in the context of economic modernization and digitalization of society.