The Role of Gamification in Learning Transfer: Does Early Skill Learning Predict Performance in Complex Tasks?

Gamification is widely employed in digital education to enhance engagement and motivation, yet its effectiveness in promoting cognitive skill transfer remains debated. This study investigated whether early learning efficiency in foundational levels (L1–L4) predicts performance in more complex tasks (L5–L8) within a physics-based educational game, and whether gamification moderates this transfer process. Ninety-four secondary school students were randomly assigned to either a gamified (n = 49) or standard (n = 45) training condition. Performance outcomes included overall efficiency, average points per attempt, and conceptual learning gains. Independent Welch’s t-tests revealed no significant group differences across these metrics (all p > .05, ds < 0.12), suggesting a high degree of performance equivalence between the gamified and standard conditions. Regression analyses indicated that early learning efficiency significantly predicted later performance in Level 5 (β = 0.611, p < .001) and Level 7 (β = 0.427, p = .017), but not in Levels 6 and 8. A composite model across Levels 5–8 confirmed a generalized transfer effect (β = 0.405, p = .002, R² = .10), emphasizing the critical role of foundational skill acquisition in complex problem-solving. Gamification did not significantly moderate this overall transfer relationship. However, a notable exception emerged at Level 7: a significant interaction (β = 0.762, p = .031) suggested that gamification enhanced transfer under conditions of heightened conceptual complexity, likely by supporting adaptive learning processes. No significant trajectory effects were observed across successive levels, with participants maintaining relatively stable performance. Further analysis of foundational levels revealed that strategic variation and cognitive challenge in Levels 2, 3, and 4 contributed most strongly to later success, whereas simple introductory practice in Level 1 was insufficient. These findings indicate that while gamification alone does not universally improve learning transfer, it may selectively facilitate skill adaptation when learners face novel or disruptive challenges. The results highlight the importance of scaffolded instructional design, emphasizing task complexity and strategic engagement during early learning stages, and suggest that gamification should be deployed adaptively rather than uniformly to optimize educational outcomes.