Fuzzy–Monte Carlo-Based Assessment for Enhanced Urban Transport Planning in Amman, Jordan

Background: Cities worldwide face continuous challenges in sustainable development, particularly in transportation systems where decisions have long-lasting impacts on urban infrastructure and quality of life. The evaluation of sustainable transportation alternatives requires careful consideration of multiple indicators, making it a complex multi-criteria decision-making process. Existing multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) frameworks often overlook the dual uncertainties introduced by both fuzzy expert judgments and probabilistic performance measures, hindering robust evaluation of transportation alternatives in developing countries. Methods: In response, this study introduces a novel hybrid methodology combining fuzzy set theory and Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate transportation alternatives through 14 comprehensive sustainability indicators. Addressing the critical need for sustainable public transportation assessment in rapidly urbanizing developing countries, where existing assessment frameworks frequently prove inadequate, we present a case study from Amman, Jordan. Results: The results reveal that a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system outperforms both conventional automobiles and small buses in 87.06% of simulation scenarios, underscoring its robust sustainability profile. The sensitivity analysis highlights that a BRT system is highly robust, with minimal sensitivity to changes in most criteria and strong responsiveness to critical factors such as land usage. Conclusions: This research provides decision-makers with a comprehensive, evidence-based tool for evaluating public transport investment under uncertainty. The methodology’s ability to account for multiple stakeholder perspectives while handling uncertainty makes it particularly valuable for urban planners and policymakers facing complex transportation infrastructure decisions in rapidly evolving urban environments.