CHANGES IN AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THE CASPIAN REGION BASED ON THE BCC-CSM1-2 CLIMATE MODEL

This study assesses projected changes in air temperature and atmospheric precipitation in the Caspian region using the BCC-CSM1-2 climate model under the SSP4.5 and SSP8.5 scenarios for the period of 1961–2024. A pronounced increase in air temperature and shifts in precipitation regimes were identified. The mean annual temperature has been rising, with positive anomalies observed since 1976. Stations located in steppe and desert zones (Tushchebek and Beineu) recorded particularly sharp increases since the 2010s. Modeling results indicate that by the end of the 21st century, under the SSP4.5 scenario, winter air temperatures may rise by +6 to +8 °C in continental areas and by +3 to +4 °C along the coast, with summer increases of +6 to +7 °C. Under the high-emission SSP8.5 scenario, projected increases reach +7 to +8 °C in winter and +9 to +10 °C in summer. Precipitation is also expected to decline by the century’s end, with the largest reduction in winter precipitation projected for the northwestern part of the region (53–60% in Aktobe and Uralsk). In summer, arid areas (Beineu, Shalkar, Tushchebek) are forecast to experience reductions of 60–71%, potentially exacerbating risks to infrastructure and agriculture. The findings highlight the urgent need for adaptation measures, including modernization of water supply systems, adoption of smart farming technologies, and the expansion of agroforestry and reforestation programs.