META-ANALYSIS OF LAND VALUE UPLIFT FROM TOD PROJECTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND POLICY

Aim: This study aims to systematically quantify the average land value appreciation (LVU) associated with Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) initiatives globally and present standardized reference values for the efficient design of Land Value Capture (LVC) measures. Methodology and results: The employed meta-analysis using evidence from multiple empirical studies of different urban settings and transit modes. Fixed Effect and Random Effect Models were used to statistically robust estimate LVU measures against heterogeneity of methodologies, locations, and transit systems. Publication bias and variance estimation approaches (DL, REML, PM) were tested for providing reliable results. Analysis in our study finds average TOD-related LVU between 4.2% and 39.4%, and an overall effect size of 14% (95% CI: 8% - 20%) within 1km of transit stations. Conclusion, significance and impact study: Meta-analysis documents substantial but heterogeneous LVU from TOD initiatives, confirming the economic return of transit investments and highlighting the relevance of local contextual determinants of the size of uplift. The research provides essential standardized LVU comparisons for policymakers, urban planners, and researchers creating effective LVC programs to achieve sustainable urban growth. Findings confirm evidence-based investment decisions in infrastructure and contribute to theory for transit-induced land value relations, making it possible to make more accurate financial estimates for future TOD projects globally.