Surface Urban Heat Island Risk Index Computation Using Remote-Sensed Data and Meta Population Dataset on Naples Urban Area (Italy)

Extreme climate events such as heatwaves are becoming more frequent and pose serious challenges in cities. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable because built surfaces absorb and release heat, while human activities generate additional greenhouse gases. This increases health risks, making it crucial to study population exposure to heat stress. This research focuses on Naples, Italy’s most densely populated city, where intense human activity and unique geomorphological conditions influence local temperatures. The presence of a Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) is assessed by deriving high-resolution Land Surface Temperature (LST) in a time series ranging from 2013 to 2023, processed with the Statistical Mono Window (SMW) algorithm in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment. SMW needs brightness temperature (Tb) extracted from a Landsat 8 (L8) Thermal InfraRed Sensor (TIRS), emissivity from Advanced Spaceborne and Thermal Emission Radiometer Global Emissivity Database (ASTERGED), and atmospheric correction coefficients from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). A total of 64 nighttime images were processed and analyzed to assess long-term trends and identify the main heat islands in Naples. The hottest image was compared with population data, including demographic categories such as children, elderly people, and pregnant women. A risk index was calculated by combining temperature values, exposure levels, and the vulnerability of each group. Results identified three major heat islands, showing that risk is strongly linked to both population density and heat island distribution. Incorporating Local Climate Zone (LCZ) classification further highlighted the urban areas most prone to extreme heat based on morphology.