Seasonal Spatial Distribution of Metapenaeopsis provocatoria longirostris in the Southern Yellow and East China Seas and Habitat Area Variation Prediction Under Climate Scenarios

In real fisheries management practices, ecological information on the seasonal distribution patterns and characteristics of marine economic fauna and responses to climate change is necessary. In this study, we analyzed data obtained from surveys conducted between 2018 and 2019 in the southern Yellow and East China Seas, using ensemble models to predict variations in the habitat area of <i>Metapenaeopsis provocatoria longirostris</i> across seasons and under different climate scenarios. The highest abundances were observed at the following water temperature and salinity conditions, respectively: 18.5 °C and 34.5‱-35‱ in spring, 18.9-28 °C and 33.4-34.6‱ in summer, 18.6-21.7 °C and 33.5-34.4‱ in autumn, and 18-21.5 °C and 34‱ in winter. The major cohort was concentrated at depths of 100-110 m and 85-105 m in spring and summer, respectively, and at 80-100 m and 70-120 m in autumn and winter, respectively. In spring and winter, <i>M. provocatoria longirostris</i> was distributed in the continental shelf waters of the East China Sea, at wider salinity (30-35‱) and water temperature (8-26 °C) ranges, whereas in summer and autumn, the distribution shifted offshore. The values predicted for habitat loss under different climate scenarios were ranked as follows: ~70% loss under SSP585-2100 > ~50% loss under SSP370-2100 > ~30% loss under SSP245-2100 > ~15% loss under SSP126-2100 and SSP370-2050 > ~1-5% under SSP126-2050, SSP245-2050, and SSP585-2050. No great gains in habitat were predicted under any scenario. Our findings can contribute to the establishment of appropriate fisheries management schemes for the rational exploitation of <i>M. provocatoria longirostris</i>. Our predictions can assist in improving fisheries management practices within the context of climate change.