Analysis of spatial and temporal evolution, driving factors and decoupling effects of agricultural carbon emissions in Anhui

Based on the panel data of 16 cities in Anhui Province from 2013 to 2022, this paper measured agricultural carbon emissions using the IPCC Emission Factors method, focusing on the sources of emissions from plantation and animal husbandry. Combined with LMDI and Tapio decoupling model, the paper analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emissions, the driving factors and the decoupling effect. The results showed that the carbon emission was characterized by three phases of “Growth–Plunge–Stable”, with the total amount decreasing by 1.64% and the intensity decreasing by 37%. Spatially, it was higher in the north and lower in the south, with the high value in the plains of northern Anhui and the lowest carbon emission intensity in mountainous area of southern Anhui. The decomposition of driving factors indicated that optimization of production efficiency (33.8% contribution), structural adjustment (45.6%), and labor force transfer (20.6%) inhibited emissions, while growth of agricultural output drove the increase of carbon emissions. The decoupling status was dominated by weak decoupling, showing fluctuations after 2018 due to epidemics and policy impacts, but the growth rate of carbon emissions in 2019–2022 (1.1%) was lower than that of economic (4.3%), showing the effectiveness of low-carbon development. It was recommended that management should be conducted according to local conditions, fertilization reduction technologies should be promoted, a policy-technology-market coordination mechanism should be constructed, and decoupling would be reinforced through clean energy substitution and the promotion of eco-agriculture, thus contributing to the green transformation of agriculture.