Evaluating Climate Change Risks for Greek Tourism Destinations: A Bioclimatic Approach

Tourism in Greece is directly influenced by bioclimatic conditions, with thermal comfort being a key determinant of destination suitability. This study quantifies projected changes in outdoor thermal stress across 25 representative Greek tourism locations using the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) index. The analysis employs daily outputs from four EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulations at ~11 km spatial resolution, covering the period 1970–2100 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Predominant PET classes were derived for a reference period (1971–2000) and two future horizons (2031–2060, 2071–2100) to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of thermal comfort. The results reveal a consistent upward shift toward higher PET classes, indicating intensifying thermal stress. During the baseline, moderate to strong heat stress (29–35 °C) dominated summer months, with cold stress (<8 °C) restricted to northern and high-altitude stations. By mid-century, even under RCP2.6, summer PET values increasingly exceed 35–41 °C, while RCP8.5 simulations show the first occurrence of extreme PET (>41 °C). By late century, RCP2.6 stabilizes heat stress, whereas RCP4.5 exhibits widespread dominance of strong stress classes and elimination of cold stress. Under RCP8.5, July–August are uniformly categorized as extreme (>41 °C) across nearly all stations, and transitional months shift toward high stress, leading to a homogenization of summer conditions. These findings underscore the high sensitivity of Greek tourism destinations to climate change, highlighting both the critical benefits of global emissions mitigation and the urgent need for locally tailored adaptation strategies.