Research on Trade Credit Risk Assessment for Foreign Trade Enterprises Based on Explainable Machine Learning

As global economic integration deepens, import and export trade plays an increasingly vital role in China’s economy. To enhance regulatory efficiency and achieve scientific, transparent credit supervision, this study proposes a trade credit risk evaluation model based on interpretable machine learning, incorporating loss preferences. Key risk features are identified through a comprehensive interpretability framework combining SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME), forming an optimal feature subset. Using Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) as the base model, a weight adjustment strategy is introduced to reduce costly misclassification of high-risk enterprises, effectively improving their recognition rate. However, this adjustment leads to a decline in overall accuracy. To address this trade-off, a Bagging ensemble framework is applied, which restores and slightly improves accuracy while maintaining low misclassification costs. Experimental results demonstrate that the interpretability framework improves transparency and business applicability, the weight adjustment strategy enhances high-risk enterprise detection, and Bagging balances the overall classification performance. The proposed method ensures reliable identification of high-risk enterprises while preserving overall model robustness, thereby providing strong practical value for enterprise credit risk assessment and decision-making.