The spatial spillover effects of new infrastructure investment on sustainable innovation ecosystems: analysis based on provincial panel data in China

Abstract Investment in new infrastructure supported by information technology is of great significance for the economic development and technological innovation of developing countries. This study employed Panel data from 31 provinces and cities in China from 2010 to 2023, using the entropy method to calculate the comprehensive index of China's sustainable innovation ecosystem. By establishing a spatial Durbin panel regression model, the spatial spillover effect of China's new infrastructure investment on the sustainable innovation ecosystem was empirically tested. The findings indicate that for every 1% increase in new infrastructure investment under the neighborhood matrix, economic matrix, and geographic matrix, the comprehensive index of the sustainable innovation ecosystem increases by 0.049%, 0.022%, and 0.060%, respectively. Mechanism analysis shows that new infrastructure investment enhances the sustainability of regional innovation ecosystems through two important pathways: R&D capital agglomeration and human capital agglomeration. Additionally, public investments in education, social security, and environmental protection have a positive moderating effect on the sustainability of new infrastructure investment and innovation ecosystems. This study is an interesting topic that has reference value for enhancing the sustainability of innovation ecosystems in developing countries.