Self-defense strategies in crisis communication: statistical verification of the dependence of tactic choice on crisis type (based on the discourse of the ruling coalition of the Federal Republic of Germany)

The aim of this study is to statistically verify the relationship between the repertoire of self-defense speech tactics deployed in the verbal behavior of the ruling coalition of the Bundestag and the specific characteristics of the crisis context from 2008 to 2025. The research seeks to identify the presence, strength, and nature of statistically significant associations through the application of a range of methods, including Pearson’s chi-squared test, Cramer’s V coefficient, and standardized residual (SR) analysis. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the identification and statistical confirmation of adaptive patterns in the selection of self-defense tactics for each crisis (2008-2025) based on the analysis of German parliamentary discourse. The results demonstrate a statistically significant but substantively weak relationship (Cramer’s V = 0.217) between the type of crisis and the choice of self-defense tactics. The analysis of standardized residuals revealed specific adaptive patterns for each crisis context: emphasis on highlighting positive aspects and appeals for collaborative action and systemic reforms during the 2008 financial crisis; the dominance of justification and opposition during the 2015 migration crisis; appeals to unity and responsibility in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic; emphasis on positive aspects and emotional appeals during the 2022 energy crisis; exaggerated justification combined with avoidance of problem acknowledgment during the 2024-2025 economic crisis; and acknowledgment of problems coupled with emotional appeals in the 2024 government crisis. The findings support the thesis of situational adaptability in speech behavior, leading to a quantitatively substantiated model of self-defense strategies in crisis situations.