Improving modelling for epidemic response: a progress update from a community of UK infectious disease modellers
We reflect on the sustainability of modelling infectious disease outbreaks from the perspective of modelling as a field of practice. We formed a community of practice among UK infectious disease modellers who had contributed to the UK COVID-19 response. We previously used a participatory workshop approach to highlight issues in the infrastructure and incentives for outbreak modelling, and synthesized our experience into a set of 12 specific recommendations. Here, we track changes in the field of infectious disease modelling 1 year later, collecting the quantitative and qualitative views of change among 14 participants. We found participants continued to highlight a lack of ongoing, sufficient or appropriate action to develop outbreak modelling capacity in the UK, while positively noting collaborations among public health facing institutions. We emphasize the under-prioritization of funding for outbreak modelling outside of emergency response periods, and the continuation of unsustainable working practices. Correcting this is crucial to supporting evidence-based public health policy for outbreak preparedness and response.
Authors
- Anne Cori (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8443-9162)
- Li Pi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7818-408X)
- Elizabeth Fearon (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5574-251X)
- Emily Nightingale (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9265-1841)
- Anna C. Carnegie (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6385-7795)
- Carl A. B. Pearson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0701-7860)
- Sabine van Elsland (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0775-7463)
- Yang Liu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9368-0425)
- Nicholas G. Davies (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1740-1412)
- Katharine Sherratt (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2049-3423)
- Sebastian Funk (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2842-3406)
- Adam J. Kucharski (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-9421)
- Edward M. Hill (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2992-2004)
- Sam Abbott (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8057-8037)
- Julian Villabona-Arenas
Institutions
- Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy (US)
- University of Liverpool (GB)
- University of North Carolina Wilmington (US)
- King's College London (GB)
- Angkor Hospital for Children (KH)
- Open Data Institute (GB)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- Nuffield Health (GB)
- University College London (GB)
- Imperial College London (GB)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Interface Focus
- Published
- 2025-09-26
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1098/rsfs.2025.0007
- Primary Topic
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00