AHP-Based Methodological Proposal for Identifying Suitable Sites for the Italian Near-Surface Repository

The selection of suitable sites for the disposal of radioactive waste constitutes a critical component of nuclear waste management. This study presents an original methodological proposal based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), designed to support early-stage site screening for a near-surface repository in Italy. AHP could be used to identify appropriate locations, focusing on 51 areas that have already undergone a preliminary screening phase. These areas, included in the National Map of Suitable Areas (CNAI), were selected as they fulfill all the technical requirements (geological, geomorphological, and hydraulic stability) necessary to ensure the safety performance of the engineering structures to be implemented through multiple artificial barriers, as specified in Technical Guide N. 29. The proposed methodology is applicable in cases where multiple sites listed in the CNAI have been identified as potential candidates for hosting the repository. A panel of 20 multidisciplinary experts, including engineers, environmental scientists, sociologists, and economists, evaluated two environmental, two economic, and two social criteria not included among the criteria outlined in Technical Guide N. 29. Pairwise comparisons were aggregated using the geometric mean, and consistency ratios (CRs) were calculated to ensure the coherence of expert judgements. Results show that social criteria received the highest overall weight (0.53), in particular the “degree of site acceptability”, followed by environmental (0.28) and economic (0.19) criteria. While the method does not replace detailed site investigations (which will nevertheless be carried out once the site has been chosen), it can facilitate the early identification of promising areas and guide future engagement with local communities. The approach is reproducible, adaptable to additional criteria or national requirements, and may be extended to other countries facing similar nuclear waste management challenges.