Artistic and literary evidence of eruptive activity at Mt. Vesuvius during the apparent long quiescence period before the 1631 eruption

Vesuvius is among the volcanoes with the highest risk worldwide due to the dense urbanization of its surroundings. Its eruptive history is well documented from 1631 onward, but the period before that, especially the 15th and 16th centuries, is poorly constrained. During this time, the volcano is thought to have experienced a prolonged quiescence, although several reports of activity exist. These reports, however, have generally been considered too uncertain to be included in official eruptive chronologies. In this study, we critically re-evaluate accounts of Vesuvius activity in the 16th centuries in light of recent research and historical-artistic evidence. We identify interesting features of the volcanic activity during this period, before the major 1631 eruption. This analysis not only sheds light on a poorly understood period of Vesuvius eruptive history but also demonstrates that the high intensity of the 1631 eruption cannot simply be attributed to prolonged repose. It thus reinforces the idea that future eruption magnitude cannot be reliably predicted based on the duration of quiescence alone. Moreover, our results indicate that the activity of Vesuvius intersects with that of the nearby Campi Flegrei caldera, highlighting that the behaviour of the two Neapolitan volcanoes during the 16th century was concurrent.