A High-Precision Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Model Based on Multivariate Variational Mode Decomposition and Gated Recurrent Unit-Attention with Crested Porcupine Optimizer-Enhanced Vector Weighted Average Algorithm

The increasing reliance on renewable energy sources, such as photovoltaic (PV) systems, is pivotal for achieving sustainable development and addressing global energy challenges. However, short-term power forecasting for distributed PV systems often faces accuracy limitations, hindering their efficient grid integration. To address this, a novel hybrid prediction model is proposed, combining multivariate variational mode decomposition (MVMD) with a gated recurrent unit (GRU) network, an attention mechanism (ATT), and an enhanced vector weighted average algorithm (cINFO). The MVMD first decomposes historical data to reduce volatility. The INFO algorithm is then improved by integrating the crested porcupine optimizer (CPO), forming the cINFO algorithm to optimize GRU-ATT hyperparameters. An attention mechanism is incorporated to accentuate key influencing factors. The model was evaluated using the DKASC Alice Springs dataset. Results demonstrate high predictive accuracy, with mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.0249, 0.0693, and 99.79%, respectively, under sunny conditions, significantly outperforming benchmark models. This confirms the model's feasibility and superiority for short-term PV power forecasting.